Trump’s low conceptual complexity leadership and the vanishing ‘unpredictability doctrine’

Abstract

This article argues that the Trump administration was not guided by an unpredictability doctrine, but was unpredictable because of the President's low conceptual complexity leadership style. This conclusion is derived by using grounded theory and utilising computer-assisted qualitative data analysis software. We demonstrate that the notion of an unpredictability doctrine was introduced exclusively within the 2015–2016 Republican primary season to avoid accountability; especially in the realm of foreign policy. The notion of being unpredictable served an important political function, but was not part of a doctrine nor conviction in any meaningful sense. As a result, there was no commitment to an unpredictability doctrine throughout President Trump's time in office, except as a persistent myth broadcast by the various media outlets. We show that the notion of unpredictability and low complexity leadership was most evident with regards to the Trump administration’s confrontation with the Islamic State. Whereby Trump’s early evasion of accountability, and lack of a plan, was justified with appeals of needing to act secretly. Our analysis shows that Trump’s unpredictability was not intentional, but was rather a by-product of low conceptual complexity informing the formulation of policy.