True Commitment or Empty Rhetoric? An ARIMA Analysis of the Deconcentration of Public Investment in Peru

Abstract

MORRISON A. R. (1993) True commitment or empty rhetoric? An ARIMA analysis of the deconcentration of public investment in Peru, Reg. Studies 27, 41–52. Regional policies are ubiquitous in less developed countries, yet theoretical explanations for these policies are often ignored. This essay presents theoretical explanations–inspired by world systems analysis and more traditional Marxist analysis, dependency theory and neoclassical economic theory—for regional policy and examines their appropriateness for the Peruvian case. Subsequently, the strength of the link between political rhetoric favouring deconcentration policies and the reality of such policies is examined. Have successive governments kept their promises to distribute public investment more equitably over Peruvian regions? This question is addressed with the aid of ARIMA models which allow the effect of policy interventions to be gauged in straightforward fashion. The ARIMA analysis reveals that few governments have matched their regionalist rhe...