Abstract
Satellite temperature measurements do not support the recent claim of a “leveling off of warming” over the past two decades. Tropospheric warming trends over recent 20-year periods are always significantly larger (at the 10% level or better) than model estimates of 20-year trends arising from natural internal variability. Over the full 38-year period of the satellite record, the separation between observed warming and internal variability estimates is even clearer. In two out of three recent satellite datasets, the tropospheric warming from 1979 to 2016 is unprecedented relative to internally generated temperature trends on the 38-year timescale.
Highlights
We used satellite estimates of atmospheric temperature produced by RSS4, STAR5, and UAH7
the lower stratosphere (TLS) is required for correcting TMT for the influence it receives from stratospheric cooling
Our focus was on pre-industrial control runs with no changes in external influences on climate, which provide estimates of the natural internal variability of the climate system
Summary
We used satellite estimates of atmospheric temperature produced by RSS4, STAR5, and UAH7. To avoid any impact of spatial coverage differences on trend comparisons, we calculated all near-global averages of actual and synthetic satellite temperatures over the area of common coverage in the RSS, UAH, and STAR datasets (82.5°N to 82.5°S). This method has been validated with both observed and model atmospheric temperature data[9, 36, 37].
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