Abstract

In two of our previous papers, we described the separate influence of tropical and extratropical forcing on the North Atlantic (NAO) and the Arctic (AO) Oscillations. Here, we point out a problem with the way the split between tropical and extratropical forcing was carried out. In the corrected model results, we find that extratropical forcing dominates tropical forcing in accounting for interannual variance in both the observed NAO and AO indices. We find that the recent upward trend in the NAO index is driven from the tropics, whereas for the AO index, we now find that extratropical forcing also contributes to the upward trend in the model. It follows that our corrected model results do not support a strong link between tropical forcing and the interannual variability of the wintertime AO, as claimed previously.

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