Tropical Pacific Climate Trends Since 1960

Abstract

Merchant ship observations appear to indicate an increase in the strength of the surface winds in the tropical Pacific and elsewhere in recent decades. Here we report an investigation of trends in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and sea level, which has repeatedly been shown to be closely related to the winds. The results suggest that sea levels since 1960 have been rising oceanwide at about 3.5 cm/decade, while simultaneously tilting about 2 cm/decade higher in the east and lower in the west, and that surface temperatures have been rising about 0.6°C/decade. These results are not consistent with the apparent wind change; rather, they support the contention that the apparent wind changes are an artifact introduced by changes in measurement technique, and suggest that tropical Pacific winds may have actually decreased in strength.