Tropical forcing and ENSO dominate Holocene climates in South Africa's southern Cape

Abstract

This paper explores the Holocene climatic dynamics of South Africa's southern Cape, a region that supports a large proportion of the Greater Cape Floristic Region and contains an array of important archaeological sites. While South African climates are generally characterised by marked rainfall seasonality, the southern Cape is currently situated at the interface between tropical and temperate climate systems, resulting in a largely aseasonal rainfall regime. This regime, however, is thought to have been particularly sensitive to past changes in late Quaternary boundary conditions, meaning that variability in either tropical or temperate systems could have significant environmental impacts. Evidence of past climate change, however, remains limited.We present a 9000-year record of hydroclimatic variability obtained from rock hyrax midden stable nitrogen records, from Papkuilsfontein, on the southern slope of the Anysberg Mountains. Resolved to an average 6-year resolution and spanning the period c. 9050 cal yr BP to 1990 CE, this is the highest resolution Holocene record from southern Africa and presents a unique opportunity for the detailed study of the primary drivers and spatial gradients of Holocene climate change in the southern Cape. The data indicate a long-term decrease in aridity across the Holocene and a pattern of variability that reveals remarkable similarities with records from the South African tropics and El Niño–Southern Oscillation proxies, highlighting the significance of tropical systems as drivers of Holocene climate change in the region. This substantially expands what has been previously considered to be the zone of tropical influence, extending from a coastal phenomenon associated with heat transport via the Agulhas Current to encompass much, if not all, of the Agulhas Plain south of the Cape Fold Mountains. These findings provide a valuable new climatic framework for contextualizing changes in ecological and archaeological records in the southern Cape, and contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of climate systems in southern Africa.