Tropical disturbances in the southeastern North Atlantic. State of the art and future prospects

Abstract

This study analyzes tropical disturbances in a region usually not affected by these events, the southeastern North Atlantic. This is an extensive area between Macaronesia and the coasts of northwest Africa and the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula. In the context of climate change, a statistical analysis has been conducted of the main database of the National Hurricane Center for the Atlantic basin, as well as a bibliographical compilation, in order to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of these phenomena. The starting hypothesis is to verify the existence of an increase in the risk of these situations in the region of study, through research that characterizes and charts these phenomena. The results indicate that, although with long periods of recurrence, some events with notable impacts had occurred before the first systematic records were kept. In addition, over the last fifty years, a much more reliable period from a scientific perspective, there has been an increase in their number, especially in recent decades. Furthermore, an approximate estimate is made of the population likely to be affected by tropical disturbances, which estimates that more than twenty million people are at risk.