Abstract
Rapid intensification of near-landfall tropical cyclones is very difficult to predict, and yet has far-reaching consequences due to their disastrous impact to the coastal areas. The focus for improving predictions of rapid intensification has so far been on environmental conditions. Here we use the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System to simulate tropical cyclones making landfall in South China: Nida (2016), Hato (2107) and Mangkhut (2018). Two smaller storms (Hato and Nida) undergo intensification, which is induced by the storms themselves through their extensive subsidence ahead of the storms, leading to clear skies and strong solar heating of the near-shore sea water over a shallow continental shelf. This heating provides latent heat to the storms, and subsequently intensification occurs. In contrast, such heating does not occur in the larger storm (Mangkhut) due to its widespread cloud cover. This results imply that to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone intensity changes prior to landfall, it is necessary to correctly simulate the short-term evolution of near-shore ocean conditions.
Highlights
Rapid intensification of near-landfall tropical cyclones is very difficult to predict, and yet has far-reaching consequences due to their disastrous impact to the coastal areas
Because the damages caused by a tropical cyclone (TC) at landfall are very much related to its maximum winds, referred to as intensity, the prediction of TC intensity is of utmost importance
The results show that a TC making landfall at a coastal area with a shallow continental shelf can selfinduce intensification under certain conditions, and are presented
Summary
Rapid intensification of near-landfall tropical cyclones is very difficult to predict, and yet has far-reaching consequences due to their disastrous impact to the coastal areas. Two smaller storms (Hato and Nida) undergo intensification, which is induced by the storms themselves through their extensive subsidence ahead of the storms, leading to clear skies and strong solar heating of the near-shore sea water over a shallow continental shelf. This heating provides latent heat to the storms, and subsequently intensification occurs. Such heating does not occur in the larger storm (Mangkhut) due to its widespread cloud cover This results imply that to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone intensity changes prior to landfall, it is necessary to correctly simulate the short-term evolution of near-shore ocean conditions. The results show that a TC making landfall at a coastal area with a shallow continental shelf can selfinduce intensification under certain conditions, and are presented
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