Tropical Cyclones and Associated Precipitation over the Western North Pacific: T106 Atmospheric GCM Simulation for Present-day and Doubled CO2 Climates

Abstract

We use a relatively high resolution (T106) atmospheric general circulation model to simulate precipitation along the tracks of tropical cyclones (TCs) within the western North Pacific basin under present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The simulated mean precipitation associated with TCs is in agreement with observational data. The simulation predicts that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 will result in an increase in TC precipitation. We attribute the predicted increase in precipitation to increased atmospheric moisture content, which is partly offset by the effects of decreased TC intensity. Mean TC precipitation and the frequency of extreme precipitation (≥150 mm/day) over Japan are predicted to increase with CO2 doubling, despite an accompanying decrease in the frequency and intensity of TCs.