Tropical cyclone risk to global mangrove ecosystems: potential future regional shifts

Abstract

Tropical cyclones pose a major risk to mangroves, yet the evolution of risk in response to altered cyclone activity under climate change remains largely unexplored. Analyzing 1886 tropical cyclones (1980–2020), we found that mangrove ecosystems were most prone to major cyclones (Category 3–5), and that intense cyclones (Category 4–5) contributed 97% of the global risk of damage. Risk hotspots were found in mangroves bordering the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea, the South Indian Ocean, and the Northwest Pacific. With warming of 2°C, the risk changes were projected to be modest (+3%) at the global scale but substantial and divergent at the regional level. Risk in North America (including Central America) and Oceania was predicted to increase and decrease by more than 10%, respectively. Our results identify regions where cyclone‐activity‐induced ecosystem changes may be expected and where mangrove management needs to prioritize cyclone resilience.