Tropical cyclone risk assessment with special reference to Bangladesh

Abstract

Tropical cyclones are regarded as the most deadly among all natural disasters. They bring catastrophic ravages to life and property as well as to environment. Among all the areas in the world affected by tropical cyclones, the countries along the rim of the Bay of Bengal suffer most and Bangladesh is the worst sufferer. In order to minimise the future loss of life and property, proper cyclone disaster management action is an absolute necessity. This, in turn, requires a better assessment of risks associated with a cyclone. The present paper discusses the major components of risk assessment, viz., (i) inventory of cyclones with associated causes of hazards, (ii) analysis of damages and inventory of elements at risk and (iii) vulnerability analysis with special reference to Bangladesh. Inventory of cyclones deals with the cyclone climatology in the Bay of Bengal region over the period 1881-1990. Discussions on causes of hazards cover strong winds. storm surges, rainfall. socio-economic factors, greenhouse effects, etc. An idea about the degree of cyclone damages and the elements at risks in Bangladesh is given. Some discussions on vulnerability analysis and risk reduction/mitigation with a few case studies in Bangladesh are made. Finally few recommendations are put forward.