Abstract
Tropical cyclone (TC) motion has an important impact on both human lives and infrastructure. Predicting TC intensity is crucial, especially within the 24 h warning time. TC intensity change prediction can be regarded as a problem of both regression and classification. Statistical forecasting methods based on empirical relationships and traditional numerical prediction methods based on dynamical equations still have difficulty in accurately predicting TC intensity. In this study, a prediction algorithm for TC intensity changes based on deep learning is proposed by exploring the joint spatial features of three-dimensional (3D) environmental conditions that contain the basic variables of the atmosphere and ocean. These features can also be interpreted as fused characteristics of the distributions and interactions of these 3D environmental variables. We adopt a 3D convolutional neural network (3D-CNN) for learning the implicit correlations between the spatial distribution features and TC intensity changes. Image processing technology is also used to enhance the data from a small number of TC samples to generate the training set. Considering the instantaneous 3D status of a TC, we extract deep hybrid features from TC image patterns to predict 24 h intensity changes. Compared to previous studies, the experimental results show that the mean absolute error (MAE) of TC intensity change predictions and the accuracy of the classification as either intensifying or weakening are both significantly improved. The results of combining features of high and low spatial layers confirm that considering the distributions and interactions of 3D environmental variables is conducive to predicting TC intensity changes, thus providing insight into the process of TC evolution.
Highlights
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are deep tropical weather systems that occur and develop on the warm ocean surface [1,2]
We hypothesized that joint spatial features of 3D environmental variables should be valuable indicators for predicting TC evolution that are correlated with TC intensity changes
We took advantage of 22 years of environmental data made available by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and trained a deep learning model to predict and classify TC intensity changes
Summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are deep tropical weather systems that occur and develop on the warm ocean surface [1,2]. The disasters TCs can induce, which are among the most destructive natural disasters, are mainly caused by strong winds, heavy rain, and storm surges [3]. The difficulty of predicting TC intensity is mainly due to our limited understanding of the complex physical processes and various factors related to TC intensification and decay [5]. Previous studies [6] have concluded that ocean characteristics and internal structural and environmental impacts are the three main factors leading to TC intensity changes. The integration of these factors to gain a further understanding of the TC evolution mechanism holds promise for improving intensity predictions
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