Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract

It is hypothesized that the effect of the SST on the intensity of tropical cyclones can be separated into two distinct contributions: one from the large-scale SST field that is in equilibrium with the atmosphere, and another one from a local reduction of the SST under the eye of the cyclone due to the surface winds of the cyclone. A theory for the maximum possible reduction of the SST directly under the eye of a tropical cyclone is proposed and tested against model data. It implies a much higher sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to the SST under the eye of the storm than to the large-scale SST field. It therefore suggests a much higher importance of the SST feedback effect on the intensity of tropical cyclones than has previously been thought.