Abstract
Abstract A set of criteria is developed to identify tropical cyclone (TC) formations in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and forecast fields. Then the NOGAPS forecasts of TC formations from 1997 to 1999 are verified relative to a formation time defined to be the first warning issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. During these three years, the spatial distributions of TC formations were strongly affected by an El Nino–Southern Oscillation event. The successful NOGAPS predictions of formation within a maximum separation threshold of 4° latitude are about 70%–80% for 24-h forecasts, and drop to about 20%–30% for 120-h forecasts. The success rate is higher for formations in the South China Sea and between 160°E and 180° but is generally lower between 120° and 160°E. The composite 850-hPa large-scale flow for the formations between 120° and 160°E is similar to a monsoon confluence region with marked cross-equatorial flow. Therefore, it is concluded that the skil...
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