TÜRKİYE'DEKİ CARİ AÇIKLARA NEDEN OLAN FAKTÖRLER: KISA VADELİ SERMAYE GİRİŞLERİ, ENERJİ İTHALATI YA DA ALTIN İTHALATI MI?

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of gold imports, energy imports and short-term capital inflows on current account deficits using Turkish quarterly data for the period 1996Q1–2021Q1. To this end, first, the current account deficit model is built based on the literature review and estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Then the presence of cointegration among relevant variables is tested by employing bonds testing, and then the error correction model is estimated. The bonds testing results indicate cointegration among current account deficits, gold imports, energy imports, portfolio investment, foreign direct investment, reel effective exchange rate, real gross domestic products, openness, and financial development proxies. The empirical findings of this study reveal that while gold imports play a significant deteriorating role on Turkish current account deficits in the short and in the long term, energy imports and portfolio investment only have a short-term effect. Furthermore, appreciation of Turkish currency seems to increase current account deficits only in the long term; it has no short-term effect. Interestingly, the openness proxy, which is being used as a measure of international trade integration of a country to the world economy, exerts no effect on current account deficits neither in the long-term and nor in the short-term.