Türkiye ile Asya ve Pasifik Ekonomik İşbirliği (APEC) Ülkeleri Arasındaki Dış Ticaretin Çekim Modeli ile İncelenmesi

Abstract

Member countries of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) constitute an important part of World foreign trade flows. Because of the share’s size that APEC takes from foreign trade and its potential of increasing the share it has in the upcoming years, it seems that Turkey’s trade with member countries of APEC will gain more importance in the future. The aim of this study is to analyze the factors that influence Turkey’s trade with 21 member countries of APEC between the years of 1997-2016 using panel data analysis method and basing upon gravity model and to explain and interpret the changes occur in the foreign trade of these countries within this period. Thus the factors influencing the international trade between APEC countries and Turkey have been determined and evaluated. In this study, total foreign trade volume of Turkey and member countries of APEC is used as dependent variable; the ratio of foreign trade volume to GDP, export, import, gross domestic product (GDP) difference, GDP per capita difference, population, Linder effect, relative factor endowment, distance and acreage are used as independent variable; G20 membership, G8 membership, OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) membership, free trade agreements, crisis and visa variables are used as dummy variable. In the consequence of analyses made with 7 model set up in this study, it has been concluded that variables of foreign trade volume / GDP, export, import, Linder effect, relative factor endowment and G20 membership influence the foreign trade volume between Turkey – APEC countries positively and variables of GDP difference, OECD membership and visa variables influence foreign trade volume negatively. It has been determined that there is no significant relationship between variables of GDP per capita difference, distance, population, acreage, G8membership, crisis, free trade agreements and variable of foreign trade volume between Turkey-APEC countries.