Türkiye’de Para Politikasının Maliyet İtişli Şoklara Tepkisi: Rüzgâra Karşı Bir Duruş mu?

Abstract

In Turkey, monetary policy responds to cost shocks rather than the inflation gap and output gap. To clarify this policy, we estimate the linear and non-linear Taylor rule using the Thresold GMM for 2006:01-2020:07. The linear model estimates that the policy rate responds significantly to the inflation gap and the real effective exchange rate. The non-linear model captures that monetary policy differs in regimes where imported goods and input prices are set as high and low. In a high price regime, monetary policy also reacts to cost-push shocks. The response of monetary policy to the exchange rate implicitly leads to "a leaning against the wind".