Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Belirleyicileri Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Abstract

In developing countries that has insufficient capital, such as Turkey, foreign direct investment (FDI) is quite important for sustaining economic development successfully. By using data for Turkey including the 1988-2018 period, in this study it is aimed to investigate the effect of some economic factors which are thought to be the determinants of foreign direct investment. Variables used in this study are FDI, the working age population, openness rate, corporate tax rate, global uncertainty index, hourly earnings index and international reserve indicator. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) were used to determine the relationship. According to the results of ARDL analysis, the amount of FDI increases when the hourly earnings index and international reserve indicators decreases and the openness and uncertainty index increases in the long run. In the short run FDI decreases when the working age population and international reserves increases; FDI increases when the openness ratio, global uncertainty index and working age population increases. ARDL analysis indicates that the amount of FDI increases when there is a decrease in corporate tax rate, openness ratio and global uncertainty index, if a delay is taken in the short term.