Triple exposure: the geographic correlation between flood risk, climate skepticism, and social vulnerability in the United States

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates the geographic correlation between flood risk, climate skepticism, and social vulnerability across the United States. Our results reveal a systematic underestimation of flood risk in the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Flood Insurance Rate Maps, especially in Appalachia, parts of New England, and the Northwest. These three regions face two additional risks: high levels of social vulnerability and skepticism about climate change. Nationally, there is a statisically significant correlation (0.19, p < 0.005) between flood risk and climate change skepticism, which increases (0.28, p < 0.005) in regions with high FEMA undercounts and elevated flood risk. Climate change skepticism manifests as distrust in science, an underestimation of property and community risk, and a resistance to mitigation and adaptation efforts. Indicators of social vulnerability, such as poverty rates, physical disabilities, unemployment, households in mobile homes, and lack of vehicle access, are especially pronounced in Appalachia. Addressing this geographically-embedded triple exposure—flood risk, social vulnerability, climate change skepticism— requires strategies to enhance local resilience. These include revising the 100-year floodplain categorization in FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program to better reflect climate change, conducting public education campaigns in vulnerable communities, and scaling-up financial assistance for flood mitigation and adaptation projects.