TRILEMMA POLICY PATHS AND REAL OUTPUT NEXUS IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This study examined the nexus between the policy trilemma and its effects on real out-put in Nigeria. The study employed annual data spanning from 1990 to 2017. Interna-tional reserve has been included in the model due to its importance as noted in the literature. Following Hsing (2012) and Ajogbeje, Adeniyi and Egwaikhide (2018), Vector Autoregression (VAR) model was employed and specifically Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test for cointegration was used. Data for the study was obtained from Aizenman, Chinn and Ito (2013), CBN Statistical Database and IMF International Financial Statistics Database. The study found a mix significant results between exchange rate stability and real GDP. The study further revealed that both monetary policy independence and capital account liberalization independently exert a significant and positive impact on real GDP but interactively they significantly re-duce the level of real output in the economy. The nexus between international reserve and real GDP was positive and significant. Therefore, the study recommends that for Nigeria to feel the positive impact of her trilemma choice on the economy, policy mak-ers should strive to pursue the policy combination consistently and buffered the econ-omy with a robust external reserve to cushion the effects of abrupt change in capital flow and exchange rate shocks.