Trick or treaty? An empirical analysis of the treaty ratification process in Italy

Abstract

Treaties are a fundamental tool of international politics. Therefore, existing literature has long investigated their ratification, the act through which an actor commits itself to the treaty’s content and its determinants. However, we believe this scholarship has three substantial limitations: a lack of comprehensive assessments of the differences between bilateral and multilateral treaties, a limited attention to small and middle powers, and a substantial neglect of the impact of cabinet ideology. We address these gaps by exploring the dynamics of treaty ratification in Italy. Our analysis covers all the treaties signed and ratified by Italian policymakers between 1994 and 2022 that underwent parliamentary approval. We find that multilateral treaties take, on average, more time to get ratified than bilateral ones. Treaties regarding areas such as environment and human rights are also subject to longer ratification processes. The presence of left-wing cabinet coalitions tends to increase the likelihood of ratification. Through these findings, the article contributes to the understanding of treaty commitment in middle powers. It also provides an innovative point of view in the debate on Italian foreign policy and its domestic drivers.