Trial Risk Assessment Based on Total Utility of Generalized Fuzzy Numbers

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a risk assessment method based on total utility of generalized fuzzy numbers (GFNs) towards trial process management. Firstly, the possible risk events in trial business process are sorted out according to trial experience and expertise of law experts. Then the occurrence probability, impact degree and repairability are used as evaluation factors and we transform corresponding evaluation descriptions into form of GFNs. Then multiple experts’ evaluations will be aggregated to get fuzzy risk value. Finally, we de-fuzzy the fuzzy risk value by calculating total utility of GFNs, achieving the purpose of risk assessment. Proposed method mainly solves two core problems. The first is that we use GFNs to express and calculate fuzzy risks after analyzing risk events, avoiding subjectivity and uncertainty in traditional risk assessment methods. The second is that we de-fuzzy the fuzzy risk value by calculating total utility of GFNs based on Maximum and Minimum Set, obtaining exact risk value as the ranking basis for accurate risk assessment. We have applied proposed method into real trial cases to realize the evaluation of trial risks for judicial business, and the results demonstrate accuracy, effectiveness and applicability of proposed method in trial scenes.