Trends of Migration Transformations in the Countries of the European Union and the Russian Federation: Identification of Predictors of Migration Processes in the Context of Migration Policy and Public Administration

Abstract

In the twenty-first century, migration has taken on unprecedented proportions, becoming a global phenomenon. Migration processes are an integral attribute of the development of human civilization. However, given the growth of the world’s population, we can safely say that the current scale of migration surpasses all previous historical examples. The negative consequences of migration processes are associated with such phenomena as lack of access to basic social services due to a number of factors, such as lack of permanent status, language barrier and many others. The resulting inequality negatively affects the well-being of migrants and host communities, creating new challenges for the economy, social order and government. The purpose of the research assumes to identify factors that serve as possible predictors of migration processes, basing on the study of migration processes and statistical indicators in the countries of the European Union and Russia. The study proceeds from the assumption that there is a relationship between the selected indicators related to issues of social well-being (in particular, the risk of poverty and the indicator of public spending on social protection), which is supposed to be verified on the basis of statistical data. The object of the research is the migration processes in Russia, the countries of the Union of Independent States (CIS) and the EU. The research methodology includes the methods of parametric statistics, the method of thematic analysis. The correlation analysis showed a mean inverse correlation between the poverty risk indicator and the indicator of public spending on social protection; low correlation between the “unemployment rate among persons with educational level 0–2” indicator and the “risk of poverty” indicator as well as the average dependence between the “the number of persons granted refugee status in the host country per 100 thousand people” and the “the number of thefts” indicators.