Abstract
The ability of state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate the trends of intense cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large-scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble in winter and summer are compared with the results from four reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, NASA-MERRA2 and JMA-JRA55) in winter and summer for 1981-2010 period.
Highlights
Cyclones play a key role in the changing of Arctic climate system, in particular contributing to the meridional atmospheric heat and moisture transport from mid-latitudes into the Arctic, thereby changing cloud feedbacks with impacts on the sea ice retreat in a warming climate [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8]
The aim of this study is to assess the performance of Arctic Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experimen (CORDEX) regional climate models (RCMs) with respect to ensemble of four state-of-art reanalysis products to represent the trends of intense cyclone activity in the Arctic
Data and Methods We analyze cyclone characteristics obtained from 6-hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data from an ensemble of 13 atmospheric RCMs simulations and four reanalysis products (Table 1) during the 1981–2010 period for the Arctic region for two seasons – winter (DJF) and summer (JJA)
Summary
Cyclones play a key role in the changing of Arctic climate system, in particular contributing to the meridional atmospheric heat and moisture transport from mid-latitudes into the Arctic, thereby changing cloud feedbacks with impacts on the sea ice retreat in a warming climate [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8]. The aim of this study is to assess the performance of Arctic Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experimen (CORDEX) regional climate models (RCMs) with respect to ensemble of four state-of-art reanalysis products to represent the trends of intense cyclone activity in the Arctic. We analyze cyclone characteristics obtained from 6-hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data from an ensemble of 13 atmospheric RCMs simulations and four reanalysis products (Table 1) during the 1981–2010 period for the Arctic region (north of 65°N) for two seasons – winter (DJF) and summer (JJA). The reanalyses have been regridded onto the Arctic-CORDEX grid
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