Abstract
Prediction of precipitation changes caused by global climate change is a practical and scientific problem of high complexity. To advance, we look at the record of all available rain gauges in Colombia and at the CHIRPS database to estimate trends in essential variables describing precipitation, including HY-INT, an index of the hydrologic cycle’s intensity. Most of the gauges and cells do not show significant trends. Moreover, the signs of the statistically significant trends are opposite between the two datasets. Satisfactory explanation for the discrepancy remains open. Among the CHIRPS database’s statistically significant trends, the western regions (Pacific and Andes) tend to a more intense hydrologic cycle, increasing both intensity and mean dry spell length, whereas for the northern and eastern regions (Caribbean, Orinoco, and Amazon), the tendencies are opposite. This dipole in trends suggests different mechanisms: ENSO affects western Colombia more directly, whereas rainfall in the eastern regions depends more on the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Amazon basin dynamics. Nevertheless, there is countrywide accord among gauges and cells with significant increasing trends for annual precipitation. Overall, these observations constitute essential evidence of the need for developing a more satisfactory theory of climate change effects on tropical precipitation.
Highlights
IntroductionOnly in the electricity sector recent studies for the Colombian Mining and Energy Planning Unit [1] estimate that the impacts of a decrease in precipitation would imply an increase in annual investment of US$ 290 million per year for the period 2013–2015
Changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact the west part of the country more directly, whereas the east part is more related to the Atlantic or Amazon basin, where other processes may be developing, see for instance Sun et al [52], Lambert et al [3], Betts et al [7] or Pietschnig et al [53]
The issue of changes in ENSO due to climate change is a significant area of debate [54]
Summary
Only in the electricity sector recent studies for the Colombian Mining and Energy Planning Unit [1] estimate that the impacts of a decrease in precipitation would imply an increase in annual investment of US$ 290 million per year for the period 2013–2015. The explanation for this increase in investments is that hydroelectric generation meets approximately 70% of the country’s electricity demand. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the only prediction tools for assessing climate change effects on tropical precipitation. Despite some building blocks for the construction of a theory of tropical precipitation change, there is no satisfactory one yet
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
