Abstract
Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in the world. While CRC incidence has decreased in many western countries over the last decades, largely thanks to screening, it is increasing in low and middle-income countries, including Thailand. However, it is unclear if these increases are consistent across different regions, gender and age groups. Aim: To understand the age-, gender- and region-specific temporal variation in CRC incidence in Thailand since the 1990s. Methods: We analyzed CRC incidence data from the Thailand National Cancer Network (TCIN) cancer registries, which include Chiang Mai (1990-2012), Lampang (1993-2014), Lopburi (2000-2014), Khon Kaen (1990-2014) and Songkhla (1990-2014) cancer registries. Trends in age-adjusted incidence (measured by annual percentage change (APC)) were assessed using Joinpoint regression. Trends by birth-year and calendar-year were assessed using age-period-cohort models. All analyses were done by region, gender, and age group (30-49, 50-84, 30-84). Results: CRC incidence has been increasing significantly in all regions, gender, and age groups; Overall, the APC was 3.82 for men and 3.84 for women (Chiang Mai, 4.34 for men & 3.26 for women; Khon Kaen, 2.69 for men & 3.68 for women; Lampang, 2.13 for men & 3.37 for women; Lopburi, 5.31 for men & 4.67 for women; Songkhla, 4.67 for men & 4.32 for women). The increase in incidence was higher for ages 50-84 (APC = 3.99 for men & 4.04 for women) compared with ages 30-49 (APC=2.97 for men & 3.09 for women). Test of parallelism suggests that increases are consistent between gender (P-value=0.97). The age-period-cohort analysis suggests that both calendar-year and birth-year are strongly correlated with CRC incidence trends, with a stronger relationship with birth-year than calendar-year for both genders. Conclusion: In contrast to western countries such as the US, CRC incidence is increasing across all age groups in Thailand, with faster increase in older ages. This highlights the needs for establishing population-wide screening programs to reduce the burden and stop the rise of CRC in Thailand and low-middle income countries.
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