Abstract
Using gridded daily temperature and rainfall data covering 30 years (1988–2017), this study investigates trends in rainfall, temperature, and extreme events in three agro-ecological settings in central Ethiopia. The Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to examine the trends and slope of changes in climate indices. The profile of farmers whose perception converges with or diverges from meteorological data was characterized using polling. The average annual temperature has increased by 0.4 and 0.3 °C per decade in the lowland and midland areas, respectively. Average annual rainfall has increased only in the midland areas by 178 mm per decade. Farmers’ perception of increasing temperature fairly aligns with meteorological data. However, there is a noticeable difference between farmers’ perception of rainfall and meteorological data. The perception of farmers with poor economic status, access to media, and higher social capital aligns with measured trends. Conversely, the perception of economically better-off and uneducated farmers diverges from meteorological data. Accurate perception is constrained by the failure of the traditional forecast methods to describe complex weather variabilities and lack of access to down-scaled weather information. The findings highlight the importance of availing specific and agro-ecologically relevant weather forecasts to overcome perceptual problems and to support effective adaptation.
Highlights
It is increasingly becoming apparent that climate change, spatio-temporal variability, and extreme events are issues of concern in Africa due to exceptionally high vulnerability [1,2]
The result suggests that the increase in average annual temperature in the lowland areas was related to significant increases in average maximum temperatures, whereas, in the midland areas, there was a significant increase in both average maximum and average minimum temperatures
In Ethiopia, long-term changes in climate conditions, the inter-annual and seasonal variability of temperature and rainfall, and the frequency of occurrence of extreme events are detrimental for agricultural activities and food security
Summary
It is increasingly becoming apparent that climate change, spatio-temporal variability, and extreme events are issues of concern in Africa due to exceptionally high vulnerability [1,2]. Unlike average temperature that is projected to increase across the continent, there is diversity in the pattern of rainfall [4]. Panel on Climate Change [5], there will be a reduction in rainfall in Northern and Southern Africa, but an increase in Eastern Africa at the end of the 21st century. Model projections show varying results for Western Africa, yet most of them indicate a wetter core rainfall season with a small delay in the Climate 2020, 8, 121; doi:10.3390/cli8110121 www.mdpi.com/journal/climate. Climate 2020, 8, 121 rainy season by the end of the century. There is a projected increase in extreme temperatures and rainfall in Africa [5]. Due to current and future trends of climate change, it is expected that there will be a decline in the area suitable for agriculture, a shortening of the length of growing seasons, and diminishing crop yields [6]
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