Trends of Cirrhosis-related Mortality in the USA during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Abstract

Immunocompromised status and interrupted routine care may render patients with cirrhosis vulnerable to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A nationwide dataset that includes more than 99% of the decedents in the U.S. between April 2012 and September 2021 was used. Projected age-standardized mortality during the pandemic were estimated according to prepandemic mortality rates, stratified by season. Excess deaths were determined by estimating the difference between observed and projected mortality rates. A temporal trend analysis of observed mortality rates was also performed in 0.83 million decedents with cirrhosis between April 2012 and September 2021 was included. Following an increasing trend of cirrhosis-related mortality before the pandemic, with a semiannual percentage change (SAPC) of 0.54% [95% confidence interval (CI): (0.0-1.0%), p=0.036], a precipitous increase with seasonal variation occurred during the pandemic (SAPC 5.35, 95% CI: 1.9-8.9, p=0.005). Significantly increased mortality rates were observed in those with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), with a SAPC of 8.44 (95% CI: 4.3-12.8, p=0.001) during the pandemic. All-cause mortality of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease rose steadily across the entire study period with a SAPC of 6.79 (95% CI: 6.3-7.3, p<0.001). The decreasing trend of HCV-related mortality was reversed during the pandemic, while there was no significant change in HBV-related deaths. While there was significant increase in COVID-19-related deaths, more than 55% of the excess deaths were the indirect impact of the pandemic. We observed an alarming increase in cirrhosis-related deaths during the pandemic especially for ALD, with evidence in both direct and indirect impact. Our findings have implications on formulating policies for patients with cirrhosis.