Trends of Changes of Maximum Air Temperature in Ukraine as an Impact Factor on Population Health

Abstract

Purpose. The aim of this research is detection of trends of changes (according to fact and scenario data) of extreme air temperature as a component of thermal regime in different regions of Ukraine because of global climate change. Methods. System analysis, statistical methods. Results. Time distribution of maximum air temperature regime characteristics based on results of observations on the stations located in different regions of Ukraine during certain available periods: Uzhgorod (1946-2018), Kharkiv (1936-2005), Оdessа (1894-2005), аnd also according to scenarios of low (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) levels of greenhouse gases emissions. Meanwhile, air temperature ≥ 25°С was considered high (days with maximum temperature within 25,0-29,9°С are hot), ≥ 30°С was considered very high (days with such temperature are abnormaly hot). Trends of changes of extreme air temperatures were identified as a component of thermal regime in different regions of Ukraine within global climate changes. Dynamics of maximum air temperature and its characteristics in ХХ and beginning of ХХІ centuries were researched. Expected time changes of maximum air temperature and number of days with high temperature during 2021-2050 were analyzed by RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. There were identified the highest day air temperatures possible once in a century and also possibility of maximum day temperature more than 30°С by RCP4.5 scenario. Well-timed prediction of climate changes will help evaluate their impact on human and natural systems which will be useful for development and taking preventive measures towards minimization of negative influence of such changes. Conclusions. Processes of climate warming in Ukraine are activating. There was determined a strong trend on increasing of average maximum of air temperature in winter with speed 0.17-0,39 degrees centigrade/10 years. According to climatic norm this index mainly increased mostly (up to 3,3 degrees centigrade) in January in North-East of the country. In future such anomalies will grow. Determination of correlation between climate and health is the base for taking protective measures against perils for population health connected with climate.