Abstract
Climate change is expected to impact flooding in many highly populated coastal regions, including Dhaka (Bangladesh), which is currently among the fastest growing cities in the world. In the past, high mortality counts have been associated with extreme flood events. We first analyzed daily water levels of the past 100 years in order to detect potential shifts in extremes. A distributed lag non-linear model was then used to examine the connection between water levels and mortality. Results indicate that for the period of 2003–2007, which entails two major flood events in 2004 and 2007, high water levels do not lead to a significant increase in relative mortality, which indicates a good level of adaptation and capacity to cope with flooding. However, following low water levels, an increase in mortality could be found. As our trend analysis of past water levels shows that minimum water levels have decreased during the past 100 years, action should be taken to ensure that the exposed population is also well-adapted to drought.
Highlights
Climate change is expected to impact the hydrological cycle due to both increased temperatures, thereby leading to changes in snow and ice regimes, as well as through shifts in the precipitation distribution [1,2].Especially shifts in hydrological extremes leading to floods and droughts can have devastating economic and social effects such as loss of land, crops, or livestock, an increase in diseases, or even death [3].Under a changing climate, extreme floods may increase [4], aggravating the situation for millions of people [5], in particular in South Asian coastal cities
To see if there is a trend in the variance of the maximum water level, i.e., if the extremes—when they do occur- become more extreme over time, the parameters of a generalized extreme value distribution are estimated from the annual minimum water level for both 1909–1939 and 1979–2009
To see if there is a trend in the variance of the maximum water level, i.e., if the extremes—when they do occur- become more extreme over time, the parameters of a generalized extreme value distribution are estimated from the annual maximum water level for both 1909–1939 and 1979–2009
Summary
Climate change is expected to impact the hydrological cycle due to both increased temperatures, thereby leading to changes in snow and ice regimes, as well as through shifts in the precipitation distribution [1,2].Especially shifts in hydrological extremes leading to floods and droughts can have devastating economic and social effects such as loss of land, crops, or livestock, an increase in diseases, or even death [3].Under a changing climate, extreme floods may increase [4], aggravating the situation for millions of people [5], in particular in South Asian coastal cities. Climate change is expected to impact the hydrological cycle due to both increased temperatures, thereby leading to changes in snow and ice regimes, as well as through shifts in the precipitation distribution [1,2]. Shifts in hydrological extremes leading to floods and droughts can have devastating economic and social effects such as loss of land, crops, or livestock, an increase in diseases, or even death [3]. Extreme floods may increase [4], aggravating the situation for millions of people [5], in particular in South Asian coastal cities. The OECD report [6] places Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, among the top five most vulnerable coastal cities. The effects of some of these threats can be counter-acted in part by improved disaster risk reduction measures, but economic risk exposure is expected to rise with the strongly growing assets in developing regions, in particular during the two decades [9]
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