Abstract
We adapted a mathematical modeling approach to estimate tuberculosis (TB) incidence and fraction treated for 101 municipalities of Brazil during 2008–2017. We found the average TB incidence rate decreased annually (0.95%), and fraction treated increased (0.30%). We estimated that 9% of persons with TB did not receive treatment in 2017.
Highlights
We adapted a mathematical modeling approach to estimate tuberculosis (TB) incidence and fraction treated for 101 municipalities of Brazil during 2008–2017
Reported cases are commonly used as a proxy for TB burden; reported cases may not reflect the true burden because areas of apparently low burden may instead represent areas of inadequate case detection
We estimated the incidence of untreated TB as the product × (1 − fraction treated), to produce a combined measure of elevated incidence and inadequate case detection
Summary
We adapted a mathematical modeling approach to estimate tuberculosis (TB) incidence and fraction treated for 101 municipalities of Brazil during 2008–2017. We applied a recently developed Bayesian method to report unbiased estimates of TB incidence and the completeness of case detection in Brazil’s state capitals and 100 most populous municipalities during 2008–2017 (Appendix, https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/EID/article/27/3/20-4094App1.pdf). Across all 101 municipalities in 2017, there were 53.2 treatment notifications/100,000 population; we estimate a TB incidence rate of 58.6 (range 11.6–169) cases/100,000 population (Table).
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