Trends in Unintentional Fall-Related Traumatic Brain Injury Death Rates in Older Adults in the United States, 1980-2010: A Joinpoint Analysis.

Abstract

Unintentional fall-related traumatic brain injury (TBI) death rate is high in older adults in the United States, but little is known regarding trends of these death rates. We sought to examine unintentional fall-related TBI death rates by age and sex in older adults from 1980 through 2010 in the United States. We used multiple-cause mortality data from 1980 through 2010 (31 years of data) to identify fall-related TBI deaths. Using a joinpoint regression program, we determined the joinpoints (years at which trends change significantly) and annual percentage changes (APCs) in mortality trends. The fall-related TBI death rates (deaths per 100,000 population) in older adults ages 65-74, 75-84, and 85 years and above were 2.7, 9.2, and 21.5 for females and 8.5, 18.2, and 40.8 for males, respectively, in 1980. The rate was about the same in 1992, yet increased markedly to 5.9, 23.4, and 68.9 for females and 11.6, 41.2, and 112.4 for males, respectively, in 2010. For males all 65 years years of age and above, we found the first joinpoint in 1992, when the APC for 1980 through 1992, -0.8%, changed to 6.2% for 1992-2005. The second joinpoint occurred in 2005, when the APC decreased to 3.7% for 2005-2010. For all females 65 years of age and above, the first joinpoint was in 1993 when the APC for 1980 through 1993, -0.2%, changed to 7.6% from 1993 to 2005. The second joinpoint occurred in 2005 when the APC decreased to 3.8% for 2005-2010. This descriptive epidemiological study suggests increasing fall-related TBI death rates from 1992 to 2005 and then a slowdown of increasing trends between 2005 and 2010. Continued monitoring of fall-related TBI death rate trends is needed to determine the burden of this public health problem among older adults in the United States.