Abstract
Airglow intensity-weighted temperature variations induced by the CO2 increase, solar cycle variation (F10.7 as a proxy) and geomagnetic activity (Ap index as a proxy) in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere (MLT) region were simulated to quantitatively assess their influences on airglow temperatures. Two airglow models, MACD-00 and OHCD-00, were used to simulate the O(1S) greenline, O2(0,1) atmospheric band, and OH(8,3) airglow temperature variations induced by these influences to deduce the trends. Our results show that all three airglow temperatures display a linear trend of ~−0.5 K/decade, in response to the increase of CO2 gas concentration. The airglow temperatures were found to be highly correlated with Ap index, and moderately correlated with F10.7, with the OH temperature showing an anti-correlation. The F10.7 and Ap index trends were found to be ~−0.7 ± 0.28 K/100SFU and ~−0.1 ± 0.02 K/nT in the OH temperature, 4.1 ± 0.7 K/100SFU and ~0.6 ± 0.03 K/nT in the O2 temperature and ~2.0 ± 0.6 K/100SFU and ~0.4 ± 0.03 K/nT in the O1S temperature. These results indicate that geomagnetic activity can have a rather significant effect on the temperatures that had not been looked at previously.
Highlights
Global warming has been recognized as being responsible for extreme weather events in recent years
The pioneering work by [1], who did a numerical study to investigate the impact on the atmospheric structure caused by the CO2 and CH4 concentration change in the lower atmosphere, has revealed that gas concentration and temperature would change in response to the change of anthropogenic gas emissions
[18] found a trend of −0.89 ± 0.55 K/decade and of 4.2 ± 0.9 K/100SFU in OH airglow temperature from 1988 to 2015, but noted that the multiple linear regression analysis that Several included linearhave andperformed solar cyclea trend terms analysis was notonenough to capture the observed long-term studies temperature measurements to determine if dynamics, and that there to be a trendand/or breakany in the data
Summary
Global warming has been recognized as being responsible for extreme weather events in recent years. The cause of global warming has been attributed to be of anthropogenic origin. The pioneering work by [1], who did a numerical study to investigate the impact on the atmospheric structure caused by the CO2 and CH4 concentration change in the lower atmosphere, has revealed that gas concentration and temperature would change in response to the change of anthropogenic gas emissions. Satellite drag measurements have been used to find if there exists any decreasing trend in neutral density [2,3,4,5]. One big challenge for the trend analysis was that solar cycle variation would cause neutral density variation as well
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