Abstract

Current and potential future conditions of terrestrial plant communities and landscape health were modeled for three alternative public land management strategies in the interior Columbia River basin. Landscape health was defined as an integration of the degree to which vegetation and disturbance conditions resemble native patterns and support levels of human activity. The range of vegetation and disturbance variability for a period before the middle 19th century was used as a basis for comparison of current and future regimes to the “historical” system. Departure from the “historical” regime in wildland environments was found to be related to altered disturbance patterns, especially changed fire regimes, forest insect and disease levels and excessive livestock grazing effects. Overall, mid-seral forests are currently more prevalent than they were in the past and old forests, especially single-layer structural types, are less abundant. Non-native plant species and altered plant community composition conditions exist across broad areas of rangelands. Landscape health has declined substantially in many areas. Proposed management strategies that emphasize maintenance and restoration activities in a hierarchical landscape approach should generate improved landscape health conditions over the next 100 years. However, the massive scale of changes to disturbance and vegetation patterns from historical to current times and the cost of implementing restoration activities make dramatic improvement unlikely.

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