Trends in species distribution modelling in context of rare and endemic plants: a systematic review

Abstract

Abstract Background Many research papers have utilized Species Distribution Models to estimate a species’ current and future geographic distribution and environmental niche. This study aims to (a) understand critical features of SDMs used to model endemic and rare species and (b) to identify possible constraints with the collected data. The present systematic review examined how SDMs are used on endemic and rare plant species to identify optimal practices for future research. Results The evaluated literature (79 articles) was published between January 2010 and December 2020. The number of papers grew considerably over time. The studies were primarily conducted in Asia (41%), Europe (24%), and Africa (2%). The bulk of the research evaluated (38%) focused on theoretical ecology, climate change impacts (19%), and conservation policy and planning (22%). Most of the papers were published in publications devoted to biodiversity conservation, ecological or multidisciplinary fields. The degree of uncertainty was not disclosed in most studies (81%). Conclusion This systematic review provides a broad overview of the emerging trends and gaps in the SDMs research. The majority of studies failed to present uncertainties and error estimates. However, when model performance estimates are given, the model results will be highly effective, allowing for more assurance in the predictions they make. Furthermore, based on our systematic review, we recommend that in the future rare and endemic SDMs should represent uncertainty levels and estimates of errors in the modelling process.