Trends in selected ambient volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and a comparison to mobile source emission trends in California's South Coast Air Basin

Abstract

Abstract Trends in ambient concentrations of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) are compared to trends in VOC emissions from Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles (LDGV) tested on chassis dynamometers and to trends observed in tunnel studies during the same period to understand the impacts of gasoline vehicle emissions on ambient VOC concentrations from 1999 to 2009. Annual median concentrations for most ambient VOCs decreased 40% from 1999 to 2009 in the SoCAB, based on data from the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS). Annual concentration decreases of most compounds, except 2,2,4-trimethylpentane, are highly correlated with the decrease of acetylene, a marker for tailpipe emissions from LDGV. This indicates that ambient VOC concentration decreases were likely due to tailpipe emission reductions from gasoline vehicles. Air Toxics Monitoring Network data also support this conclusion. Benzene concentration-normalized ratios for most compounds except ethane, propane, isoprene, and 2,2,4-trimethylpentane were stable even as these compound concentrations decreased significantly from 1999 to 2009. Such stability suggests that the main sources of ambient VOC were still the same from 1999 to 2009. The comparison of trends in dynamometer testing and tunnel studies also shows that tailpipe emissions remained the dominant source of tunnel LDGV emissions. The pronounced changes in 2,2,4-trimethylpentane ratios due to the introduction of Phase 3 gasoline also confirm the substantial impact of LDGV emissions on ambient VOCs. Diurnal ambient VOC data also suggest that LDGV tailpipe emissions remained the dominant source of ambient VOCs in the SoCAB in 2009. Our conclusion, which is that current inventory models underestimate VOC emissions from mobile sources, is consistent with that of several recent studies of ambient trends in the SoCAB. Our study showed that tailpipe emissions remained a bigger contributor to ambient VOCs than evaporative emissions from LDGV's. This finding is also different from EMFAC estimates.