Trends in scrappage and survival of U.S. light-duty vehicles

Abstract

The rate at which new vehicles replace the existing stock of used vehicles affects the rate at which the benefits of regulations requiring safety technologies, controls on pollutant emissions, and energy efficiency improvements are fully realized. A review of past estimates of the life expectancies of U.S. light-duty vehicles indicates they have been increasing by 0.5 % to 1.5 % per year for the last half a century. We estimate models of scrappage rates and survival probabilities as a function of vehicle age for U.S. passenger cars, SUVs and vans, and pickup trucks, using population counts of vehicles in operation by vehicle type and model year for calendar years 2002–2020. Our results indicate that life expectancies for all three vehicle types continued to increase over this recent time period, by 2–3 years for passenger cars, 3–4 years for SUVs and Vans, and 5–6 years for pickup trucks. By 2020, median expected lifetimes ranged from about 17 years for passenger cars to 20 years for SUVs and vans, and 25 years for pickup trucks. The content and durability of new vehicles is likely to continue to increase as the market transitions to more electrified and automated vehicles, with important implications for policies aimed at reducing emissions, increasing fuel economy and improving safety.