Abstract
BackgroundFavourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD.MethodsData were obtained from five data sources including several large scale population based surveys, cohort studies and general practitioner registers between 1988 and 2012. We applied linear regression models to age-standardized time trends to test for statistical significant trends. Analyses were stratified by sex and age (younger <65 and older ≥65 years adults).ResultsThe results demonstrated favourable trends in smoking (except in older women) and physical activity (except in older men). Unfavourable trends were found for body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus prevalence. Although systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol trends were favourable for older persons, SBP and total cholesterol remained stable in younger persons.ConclusionsFour out of six risk factors for CHD showed a favourable or stable trend. The rise in diabetes mellitus and BMI is worrying with respect to CHD morbidity and mortality.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3526-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Highlights
Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality
We aimed to provide a descriptive analysis of age-sex specific time trends in systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol levels, diabetes mellitus, physical activity and smoking prevalence in the general population including ages up to 85 years between 1988 and 2012
Data were obtained from five data sources including cohort studies, surveys and general practitioner registers, that were representative for the Dutch population
Summary
Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. In the Netherlands, 90 % of deaths are related to the main four NCDs (cancers 33 %, cardiovascular diseases 29 %, chronic respiratory diseases 6 % and diabetes 2 %) [1]. Both modifiable risk factors (behavioural) and non-modifiable risk factors (such as age, gender, ethnicity, family history) can change the risk. Monitoring cardiovascular risk factor trends is of great importance as favourable changes in cardiovascular risk factors can cause declines in CHD incidence rates, shortterm case-fatality rates (by less severe events), risks for reinfarctions and mortality rates.
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