Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: a review and reporting protocol

Luis R Carrasco,George J Milne,Mark Jit,Vernon J Lee,Mark I Chen,Alex R Cook

doi:10.1186/1742-7622-10-3

Abstract

BackgroundThe volume of influenza pandemic modelling studies has increased dramatically in the last decade. Many models incorporate now sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals.MethodsWe reviewed trends in these aspects in models for influenza pandemic preparedness that aimed to generate policy insights for epidemic management and were published from 2000 to September 2011, i.e. before and after the 2009 pandemic.ResultsWe find that many influenza pandemics models rely on parameters from previous modelling studies, models are rarely validated using observed data and are seldom applied to low-income countries. Mechanisms for international data sharing would be necessary to facilitate a wider adoption of model validation. The variety of modelling decisions makes it difficult to compare and evaluate models systematically.ConclusionsWe propose a model Characteristics, Construction, Parameterization and Validation aspects protocol (CCPV protocol) to contribute to the systematisation of the reporting of models with an emphasis on the incorporation of economic aspects and host behaviour. Model reporting, as already exists in many other fields of modelling, would increase confidence in model results, and transparency in their assessment and comparison.

Highlights

Influenza pandemics are overwhelmingly large scale phenomena that may result in high morbidity, mortality and large economic impacts worldwide
Models predicted that reduced international air travel would be unlikely to stop an influenza pandemic [11], a finding later verified empirically during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic [12,13]; other models predicted the potential of antiviral prophylaxis and contact tracing to control small outbreaks
One of the main focuses of this review is to evaluate the trends in the construction and validation of mechanistic models — models that explicitly incorporate the mechanisms or processes underlying the outcomes of the system — of infection dynamics for influenza pandemic preparedness, control and mitigation

Summary

Introduction

Influenza pandemics are overwhelmingly large scale phenomena that may result in high morbidity, mortality and large economic impacts worldwide. Because empirical or field studies of population-level strategies to control or mitigate influenza pandemics are generally either infeasible (e.g. controlling movement of people within a city) or unethical (e.g. withholding vaccination of subpopulations to assess the effect on transmission), modelling is one of the only suitable methodologies to enable multiple hypothetical pandemic preparedness and mitigation scenarios to be assessed. The usefulness of epidemic models in directing mitigation efforts has been supported by empirical findings that have echoed previous modelling predictions. Many models incorporate sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals

Methods

Discussion

Conclusion