Trends in Mortality After Incident Hospitalization for Heart Failure Among Medicare Beneficiaries

Abstract

Despite advances in treatment and care quality for patients hospitalized with heart failure (HF), minimal improvement in mortality has been observed after HF hospitalization since 2010. To evaluate trends in mortality rates across specific intervals after hospitalization. This cohort study evaluated a random sample of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with incident HF hospitalization from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from February 2023 to May 2024. Unadjusted mortality rates were calculated by dividing the number of all-cause deaths by the number of patients with incident HF hospitalization for the following periods: in-hospital, 30 days (0-30 days after hospital discharge), short term (31 days to 1 year after discharge), intermediate term (1-2 years after discharge), and long term (2-3 years after discharge). Each period was considered separately (ie, patients who died during one period were not counted in subsequent periods). Annual unadjusted and risk-adjusted mortality ratios were calculated (using logistic regression to account for differences in patient characteristics), defined as observed mortality divided by expected mortality based on 2008 rates. A total of 1 256 041 patients (mean [SD] age, 83.0 [7.6] years; 56.0% female; 86.0% White) were hospitalized with incident HF. There was a substantial decrease in the mortality ratio for the in-hospital period (unadjusted ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.67-0.77; risk-adjusted ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.71-0.76). For subsequent periods, mortality ratios increased through 2013 and then decreased through 2018, resulting in no reductions in unadjusted postdischarge mortality during the full study period (30-day mortality ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.82-1.06; short-term mortality ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.87-1.17; intermediate-term mortality ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.79-1.19; and long-term mortality ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.76-1.16) and small reductions in risk-adjusted postdischarge mortality during the full study period (30-day mortality ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.90; short-term mortality ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.94-0.95; intermediate-term mortality ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92-0.95; and long-term mortality ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.93-0.96). In this study of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, there was a substantial decrease in in-hospital mortality for patients hospitalized with incident HF from 2008 to 2018, but little to no reduction in mortality for subsequent periods up to 3 years after hospitalization. These results suggest opportunities to improve longitudinal outpatient care for patients with HF after hospital discharge.