Trends in male wild turkey abundance and harvest following restoration efforts in the southeast region of Missouri, 1960–2010

Abstract

ABSTRACTLong‐term estimates of abundance can be useful in elucidating wildlife population and hunter dynamics as well as other potential factors affecting populations. We used estimated vulnerability coefficients from a statistical population reconstruction (SPR) analysis (1996–2010), along with a 50‐year time series of harvest and hunter‐effort data to reconstruct a male wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) population in southeastern Missouri, USA (1960–2010; Gast et al. 2013). Following restoration efforts, the male wild turkey population in the Ozarks East turkey productivity region grew rapidly following a logistic growth pattern, from 2,932 turkeys in 1960 to 15,764 in 1980, and vacillated around a stable equilibrium from 1980 to 2010. Distance from St. Louis, Missouri, explained 19.8% of the variation in hunter density while turkey density only explained 1.1%, suggesting that factors beyond game density influenced hunter distribution. To explain the high inter‐annual variation of abundance found in the historical reconstruction, we examined the relationship between spring weather, recruitment, and abundance metrics. A multiple linear regression found total precipitation in June to be positively correlated and the number of cold days in April to be negatively correlated with yearling male (1 year old): adult male ratios in the following spring. Our results suggest the current wild turkey population is controlled primarily by extrinsic factors through effects on reproduction. Evidence of a stable population with high inter‐annual variation lends support for using consistent harvest regulations rather than altering regulations annually to accommodate short‐term trends in abundance. Our research highlights the utility of SPR models to assess factors affecting historical wildlife population demographics. © 2014 The Wildlife Society.