Trends in low flows of German rivers since 1950: Comparability of different low‐flow indicators and their spatial patterns

Abstract

AbstractClimate change, land‐use shifts, reservoir storage, and water withdrawals impact low flows in rivers, creating challenges for ecological integrity and human uses. A systematic investigation of river discharges was carried out for 79 stream gauges in Germany. Available time series between 1950 and 2013 were analysed for trends in annual minimum low flows, discharge deficits, and low‐flow durations. The application of different low‐flow indicators led to similar spatial patterns, although each metric is used for different purposes in water management applications.Statistical tests identified significant discharge trends at more than half of the stations investigated. Low‐flow trends since 1950 tended to be catchment specific, suggesting that climate change has not been the dominant driver. Most of the gauges investigated showed statistically significant increases in low flows. This can be mainly attributed to reservoir management. For rivers showing snow‐ and icemelt‐dominated flow regimes, such trends are probably overlain by climate‐driven changes (increasing amounts of rainfall, earlier snowmelt in spring). In contrast, stations showing statistically significant decreases in low flows were correlated with areas of decreasing mining activity. Hydrologic impacts of climate change are widespread and significant, but the results here suggest that human river management remains the dominant hydrologic driver on many rivers.