Trends in Legal Firearm Transactions: A Possible Protective Role of Gun Law Strength.

Abstract

The United States (US) holds the highest personal firearm ownership among industrialized nations, with implications for firearm-related deaths tied to increased per capita gun ownership and varying gun laws. This study examines the influence of gun law strength on legal firearm transactions, positing a correlation between stronger laws and reduced transactions. The analysis, focused on the stress-laden COVID-19 pandemic, evaluates handgun, long gun, and multiple gun transactions in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2018-2019. The Giffords Gun Law scorecard categorized states into the top 25 "strong" and bottom 25 "weak" gun law groups. Multivariate linear regressions assessed the association between strong gun law states and monthly National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) data from 2018 to 2021. The study queried NICS for handgun, long gun, and multiple gun transactions, comparing median monthly transactions in 2018 and 2019 to 2020 and 2018-2020 to 2021. When evaluating gun law strength through multivariate linear regression models, stronger gun law states had fewer monthly NICS transactions for handguns, long guns, and multiple guns in 2020 and 2021 versus all comparison years (all P < .05). However, from 2018-2019 to 2020 and 2018-2020 to 2021, median monthly NICS transactions per 100,000 people for all gun types increased (all P < .05). Stricter gun laws correlated with decreased firearm transactions in stronger law states, yet handgun, long gun, and multiple gun transactions increased during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Therefore, strengthening firearm legislation may be protective against the proliferation of firearms, which warrants further research.