Trends in infant mortality rates in Hungary between 1963 and 2012.

Abstract

This study investigated annual and seasonal death trends for infants of <1year of age in Hungary between 1963 and 2012 and analysed commonly accepted risk factors. Data on the numbers of live births and infant deaths were obtained from the published nationwide population register. Negative binomial regression was applied to investigate the yearly trends in rates and also the effect of possible risk factors - low birthweight, maternal education and sex - on infant mortality. Cyclic trends were investigated using logistic regression. Annual infant mortality declined significantly (p<0.001) from 42.9 to 4.9 per 1000 live births per year during the study period and significantly increased (p<0.001) in the low birthweight group and lower maternal education groups. A significant (p<0.001) cyclic trend in mortality was revealed, with a peak in deaths in late February for all infants and a double peak, in May and November, in the group of cases who died during the early neonatal period. This Hungarian study suggests that there was a significant seasonal effect on neonatal and infant mortality at the end of winter between 1963 and 2012. We speculate that this may have been related to respiratory infections.