Trends in incidence of treated end‐stage renal disease, overall and by primary renal disease, in persons aged 20–64 years in Europe, Canada and the Asia‐Pacific region, 1998–2002

Abstract

To determine if rates of diabetic and non-diabetic end-stage renal disease (ESRD), which had been rising in young and middle-aged adults in all populations up to the mid-1990s, had started to decline, and if so, whether improvement had occurred in respect of each of the principal primary renal diseases causing ESRD. Poisson regression of age- and sex-standardized incidence of ESRD for persons aged 20-64 years in 18 populations from Europe, Canada and the Asia-Pacific region, for 1998-2002. In persons from 12 European descent (Europid) populations combined, there was a small downward trend in all-cause ESRD (-1.7% per year, P = 0.001), with type 1 diabetic ESRD falling by 7.8% per year (P < 0.001), glomerulonephritic ESRD by 3.1% per year (P = 0.001), and 'all other non-diabetic' ESRD by 2.5% per year (P = 0.02). The reductions in ESRD attributed to hypertensive (-2.2% per year) and polycystic renal disease (-1.5% per year) and unknown diagnosis (-0.2% per year) were not statistically significant. On the other hand, the incidence of type 2 diabetic ESRD rose by 9.9% per year (P < 0.001) in the combined Europid population, although that of (principally type 2) diabetic ESRD remained unchanged in the pooled data from the four non-Europid populations. Recent preventive strategies, probably chiefly modern renoprotective treatment, appear to have been effective for tertiary prevention of ESRD caused by the proteinuric nephropathies other than type 2 diabetic nephropathy, for which the continuing increase in Europid populations represents a failure of prevention and/or a change in the nephropathic potential of type 2 diabetes.