Trends in incidence and mortality of squamous cell carcinoma of the skin: An observational analysis of the Global Burden of Disease database from 1990 to 2017.

Abstract

10569 Background: Epidemiological data relating to non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC), including squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), is highly under-reported and under-studied due to its lower metastatic potential. In recent years, incidence and prevalence of SCC has increased in many countries due to earlier detection, increased ultraviolet light exposure, as well as increasing life expectancy. This investigation compared trends in SCC incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 33 countries. Methods: We utilized the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database for 33 countries, including the European Union nations as well as other selected high-income countries including the UK and USA. We extracted data including age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and DALYs for SCC of the skin from 1990 to 2017. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to describe the trends. Results: For both sexes, the highest ASIRs were seen in the USA and Australia: ASIRs were 362.8/100,000 and 283.7/100,000 respectively for males, and 171.2/100,000 and 152.4/100,000 respectively for females. Males had higher ASIRs than females at the end of the observation period in all countries. In contrast, the highest ASMRs for males were observed in Australia (2.77/100,000) and Latvia (2.44/100,000), while the highest ASMRs for females were observed in Romania (0.95/100,000) and Croatia (0.90/100,000). The highest DALYs for both sexes were seen in Australia and Romania: DALYs were 58.4/100,000 and 43.8/100,000 respectively for males, and 16.9/100,000 and 14.9/100,000 respectively for females. Over the observation period, there were more countries demonstrating decreasing trends in mortality than in incidence. There was also a disparity between which countries had comparatively high mortality rates and which had high incidence rates – for instance, the USA, which had by far the highest SCC incidence rates, had among the lower mortality rates. Overall reductions in DALYs were observed in 24 of 33 countries for males, and 25 countries for females. Conclusions: Over the past 27 years, although trends in SCC incidence have risen in most countries, there is evidence that mortality rates have been decreasing, especially towards the end of the observation period. Overall, burden of disease as assessed using DALYs has decreased in the majority of countries. Future work will explore potential explanatory factors for the observed disparity in trends in SCC incidence and mortality.