Trends in heart failure mortality in England and Wales since 1950

Abstract

Background This study aims to analyse trends in heart failure mortality for England and Wales from 1950 to 2003. Methods A retrospective observational study was conducted using death certificate and population data from the Office for National Statistics. Results Unadjusted heart failure deaths rose by a factor of more than four between 1950 and 1974 and then fell by a quarter by 2003. When standardised for changes in the age, sex and size of the population, there was a tripling in mortality rate from 1950 to the mid-1970s and since then, a sustained decline in mortality rate of 50% by 2003. The unadjusted female heart failure death rate has been between 1.5–2 times that of males since the early 1970s, but this is much less marked when the differences in the age distribution and sizes of the male and female populations are taken into account. Heart failure mortality trends are similar to those of coronary heart disease (CHD), but the peak is about 10 years earlier, and the male/female ratios are reversed. There is a continuing rise in deaths from both heart failure and CHD in the very elderly (> 85 years). Conclusion Unlike hospital trends, deaths from heart failure in the community in England and Wales show a decline since the early 1970s, in spite of an ageing population. This may reflect genuine changes in heart failure incidence, or parallel changes in CHD.