Abstract
BackgroundAvailable evidence suggests that cognitive impairment (CI), which leads to deficits in episodic memory, executive functions, visual attention, and language, is associated with difficulties in the capacity to perform activities of daily living. Hence any forecast of the future prevalence of functional disability should account for the likely impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability. Thus, this research aims to address this gap in literature by projecting the number of older adults in China with functional disability and cognitive impairment while accounting for the impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability.MethodsWe developed and validated a dynamic multi-state population model which simulates the population of China and tracks the transition of Chinese older adults (65 years and older) from 2010 to 2060, to and from six health states—(i) active older adults without cognitive impairment, (ii) active older adults with cognitive impairment, (iii) older adults with 1 to 2 ADL limitations, (iv) older adults with cognitive impairment and 1 to 2 ADL limitations, (v) older adults with 3 or more ADL limitations, and (vi) older adults with cognitive impairment and 3 or more ADL limitations.ResultsFrom 2015 to 2060, the number of older adults 65 years and older in China is projected to increase, of which the number with impairment (herein referred to as individuals with cognitive impairment and/or activity of daily living limitations) is projected to increase more than fourfold from 17·9 million (17·8–18·0) million in 2015 to 96·2 (95·3–97·1) million by 2060. Among the older adults with impairment, those with ADL limitations only is projected to increase from 3·7 million (3·6–3·7 million) in 2015 to 23·9 million (23·4–24·6 million) by 2060, with an estimated annual increase of 12·2% (12·1–12·3); while that for cognitive impairment only is estimated to increase from 11·4 million (11·3–11·5 million) in 2015 to 47·8 million (47·5–48·2 million) by 2060—this representing an annual growth of 7·07% (7·05–7·09).ConclusionOur findings suggest there will be an increase in demand for intermediate and long-term care services among the older adults with functional disability and cognitive impairment.
Highlights
Available evidence suggests that cognitive impairment (CI), which leads to deficits in episodic memory, executive functions, visual attention, and language, is associated with difficulties in the capacity to perform activities of daily living
Available evidence suggests that cognitive impairment, which leads to deficits in episodic memory, executive functions, visual attention, and language [25], is associated with difficulties in the capacity to perform activities of daily living [26]; any forecast of the future prevalence of functional disability should account for the likely impact of cognitive impairment/dementia on the onset of functional disability
Model design In order to project the number of older adults in China with cognitive impairment and functional disability, we developed and validated a dynamic multi-state population model [27, 28] which simulates the population of China and tracks the transition of older Chinese adults 65 years and older from 2010 to 2060, to and from six health states—(1) active older adult without cognitive impairment, (2) active older adult with cognitive impairment, (3) older adult with 1 to 2 Activity of Daily Living (ADL) limitations, (4) older adult with cognitive impairment and 1 to 2 ADL limitations, (5) older adult with 3 or more ADL limitations, and (6) older adult with cognitive impairment and 3 or more ADL
Summary
Available evidence suggests that cognitive impairment (CI), which leads to deficits in episodic memory, executive functions, visual attention, and language, is associated with difficulties in the capacity to perform activities of daily living. Any forecast of the future prevalence of functional disability should account for the likely impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability. This research aims to address this gap in literature by projecting the number of older adults in China with functional disability and cognitive impairment while accounting for the impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability. With the largest population of older adults in the world, is rapidly ageing [1]. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), it is estimated that by 2050, the population of China aged 60 and older will reach 35·1% [3]. The rapid growth in the number of older adults in China is a source of concern for policymakers due to the health and social care implications of aging. Aging could lead to undesirable outcomes such as rising dependency and caregiver burden; increased health care utilization for both acute and long-term care; and escalating healthcare cost [4,5,6,7,8,9,10]
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