Trends in extreme temperature over Nigeria from percentile‐based threshold indices

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study analyses spatial and temporal trends in extreme temperature indices over Nigeria. The percentile indices were calculated from newly homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature data for the period 1971–2012 for 21 stations in Nigeria. Indices describing the characteristics of hot extremes and cold extremes are calculated with the RClimDex software. The annual and seasonal trends in these indices are obtained using the ordinary least square fit and the statistical significance tested using the R‐based modified Mann–Kendall test. We examine characteristics of these indices for the entire country and separately for the three geographical zones in Nigeria: Guinea, Savanna, and Sahel. The spatial and temporal patterns of trends in the indices indicate that Nigeria has experienced statistically significant increase in the frequency of hot extreme and decrease in cold extreme events. Although majority of the stations have significant trends in warm days and warm nights, the annual trend is greatest in warm nights. In addition, the rate of warming in minimum temperature (‘warm nights’) is stronger in June, July, August (JJA) and September, October, November (SON) compare with December, January, February (DJF) and March, April, May (MAM). As for the trends in cold days and cold nights, the trends in cold nights are larger than for cold days at both the annual and seasonal scales. The regional analysis indicates that trends in warm nights and cold nights are most pronounced in Guinea and Sahel regions.