Abstract
AbstractAn investigation of trends in dental caries in the Australian adolescent population was possible through the development of a predictive model for caries severity. Past associations of predictor variables with caries severity were separated out from a wide range of ad hoc surveys, clinical trials, and analyses of service records. National trends in the identified predictor variables were then used to predict past and future caries severity for the Australian adolescent population. Caries severity marginally decreased between 1965 to 1970. Over the period 1970 to 1980 caries severity markedly decreased. Caries severity was predicted to continue to decrease over the period 1980 to 1990, but with evidence of a plateauing for younger adolescents by 1990. Marked increases in percentages of younger adolescents caries‐free between 1975 and 1990 were also predicted. The predictions appeared to be tracking adequately with subsequently available data.
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